California's hotel market - boom or bust?

Chip Conley is the founder and CEO of Joie de Vivre Hotels (often just called JDV), California's largest boutique hotel collection.

Closely dependent on the state's economic health, how will JDV fare now that California has hit on hard times?

Chip's article in The Hotel Yearbook is surprisingly upbeat. (Then again, maybe that's not very surprising...) Among other points he makes, he believes that in the current recesson, if consumers are staying a little closer to home, "I'd rather be a California hotelier than a Hawaii hotelier." Makes sense to me!

What do you think? Any California hoteliers out there who care to comment? How (and when) do you see the recovery coming about?

How will things get better (and when)?

To kick off our series of discussions, I'd like to begin with an article written by Sir David Michels, the former CEO of Hilton Group PLC and now a board member at both Jumeirah and Strategic Hotels and Resorts.

I've seen Sir David speak at industry gatherings on eight or nine occasions and I have always been impressed by his lucid overview of the issues facing the business, and his wry sense of humor as well.

Given his high-level perspective, I asked Sir David to tell Hotel Yearbook readers how he thought the economic recovery would unfold, and specifically how the recovery would take shape in the hotel industry, stage by stage.

His article is available online here.

Two things strike me about his stance. First, he believes there is pent-up demand for travel and we will start to see people travelling again in the 2nd quarter of 2010. Hotels will therefore be busier than in 2009 - but because rates won't have recovered yet, they won't be as profitable.

He also writes that "a large number" of hotels will change hands between about April and July.

Do you agree with these views?

Welcome!

Welcome to this new interactive blog, dedicated to the content of the Hotel Yearbook 2010. I'm your host and moderator, Woody Wade. I am the creator of the Hotel Yearbook and have been its editor/publisher these last four years, i.e. for all four of the editions that have been published so far, beginning with the publication's "maiden voyage" in late 2006, The Hotel Yearbook 2007.

In all, some 180 articles have been published, covering such topics as:

• the outlook for the hotel industry in the USA, UK, Germany, Russia, China and about 40 other countries;
• the trends affecting how various segments of the hotel industry will develop, from luxury resorts to timeshare and extended stay;
• the expectations of a host of experts on the economy itself, capital market developments and the impact on hotel acquisitions; and
• new management ideas and tools that will affect the way hotels and hotel companies perform.

So there's a lot of meat we can chew on! Here's how I foresee this blog working:

There are about 70 articles in this year's edition, examining the hotel industry's outlook for 2010 from nearly as many different facets and perspectives. All of the articles were written by very knowledgeable contributors expressly selected because of their experience and expertise in the subject area. For example, the CEO's of about 20 hotel companies around the world participated this year. Despite the wide range of specific topics, what all these articles have in common is that the authors all address this question:

"What should we be expecting

in the hotel industry in 2010?"

My idea in starting this blog is to give readers of the Yearbook, and anyone else who is interested in the future of the hotel industry, the chance to comment on these articles. Do you agree with the author? What do you find particularly insightful or different (or perhaps impractical or wrong-headed) about his or her take on the near-term outlook for the business? What have you got to add - another perspective, an interesting story, a link to another site with a complementary point of view - that can help us all understand the subject better?

Occasionally, we'll also take a look at other issues and trends affecting the hotel industry not necessarily covered in the current edition of the Yearbook. If I find an interesting article, I'll link to it here.

And that's it, really. My hope is that these discussions will be valuable for everybody involved. I will do my best to persuade the authors to participate as well, although I can't promise that that will always be possible. However, whether they take an active part in the discussion thread or not, I will make sure that the authors receive the feedback generated here.

So without further ado, let's give this a whirl! I look forward to your comments.