In this article, "The New Normal in 2010", Jan Freitag of Smith Travel Research describes five trends he is expecting to play out this year in the US hotel market.
Here's a preview, with Jan hinting at each of the five key factors he sees as critical in 2010 in terms of a conventional slogan ("Common wisdom") and alas, a new slogan that represents the "new normal" for the new year:
1. RevPAR recovery
Common wisdom: Fine through '09
The new normal: Back in heaven in 2011
2. Easing supply pipeline
Common wisdom: If you build it, they will come
The new normal: Ice Age in the debt markets
3. Contraction in the middle
Common wisdom: Puttin' on the Ritz
The new normal: New frugality
4. Group rates vs. transient rates
Common wisdom: Group ADR less than transient ADR
The new normal: Group ADR greater than transient ADR
5. The new value deinition
Common wisdom: It's a seller's market
The new normal: 365 days of sales
Intrigued? Click here to read the analysis behind the slogans.
Showing posts with label outlook. Show all posts
Showing posts with label outlook. Show all posts
Monday, March 1, 2010
Sunday, February 28, 2010
How will things get better (and when)?
To kick off our series of discussions, I'd like to begin with an article written by Sir David Michels, the former CEO of Hilton Group PLC and now a board member at both Jumeirah and Strategic Hotels and Resorts.
I've seen Sir David speak at industry gatherings on eight or nine occasions and I have always been impressed by his lucid overview of the issues facing the business, and his wry sense of humor as well.
Given his high-level perspective, I asked Sir David to tell Hotel Yearbook readers how he thought the economic recovery would unfold, and specifically how the recovery would take shape in the hotel industry, stage by stage.
His article is available online here.
Two things strike me about his stance. First, he believes there is pent-up demand for travel and we will start to see people travelling again in the 2nd quarter of 2010. Hotels will therefore be busier than in 2009 - but because rates won't have recovered yet, they won't be as profitable.
He also writes that "a large number" of hotels will change hands between about April and July.
Do you agree with these views?
I've seen Sir David speak at industry gatherings on eight or nine occasions and I have always been impressed by his lucid overview of the issues facing the business, and his wry sense of humor as well.
Given his high-level perspective, I asked Sir David to tell Hotel Yearbook readers how he thought the economic recovery would unfold, and specifically how the recovery would take shape in the hotel industry, stage by stage.
His article is available online here.
Two things strike me about his stance. First, he believes there is pent-up demand for travel and we will start to see people travelling again in the 2nd quarter of 2010. Hotels will therefore be busier than in 2009 - but because rates won't have recovered yet, they won't be as profitable.
He also writes that "a large number" of hotels will change hands between about April and July.
Do you agree with these views?
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