Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts

Sunday, February 28, 2010

California's hotel market - boom or bust?

Chip Conley is the founder and CEO of Joie de Vivre Hotels (often just called JDV), California's largest boutique hotel collection.

Closely dependent on the state's economic health, how will JDV fare now that California has hit on hard times?

Chip's article in The Hotel Yearbook is surprisingly upbeat. (Then again, maybe that's not very surprising...) Among other points he makes, he believes that in the current recesson, if consumers are staying a little closer to home, "I'd rather be a California hotelier than a Hawaii hotelier." Makes sense to me!

What do you think? Any California hoteliers out there who care to comment? How (and when) do you see the recovery coming about?

How will things get better (and when)?

To kick off our series of discussions, I'd like to begin with an article written by Sir David Michels, the former CEO of Hilton Group PLC and now a board member at both Jumeirah and Strategic Hotels and Resorts.

I've seen Sir David speak at industry gatherings on eight or nine occasions and I have always been impressed by his lucid overview of the issues facing the business, and his wry sense of humor as well.

Given his high-level perspective, I asked Sir David to tell Hotel Yearbook readers how he thought the economic recovery would unfold, and specifically how the recovery would take shape in the hotel industry, stage by stage.

His article is available online here.

Two things strike me about his stance. First, he believes there is pent-up demand for travel and we will start to see people travelling again in the 2nd quarter of 2010. Hotels will therefore be busier than in 2009 - but because rates won't have recovered yet, they won't be as profitable.

He also writes that "a large number" of hotels will change hands between about April and July.

Do you agree with these views?