The New Normal

In this article, "The New Normal in 2010", Jan Freitag of Smith Travel Research describes five trends he is expecting to play out this year in the US hotel market.

Here's a preview, with Jan hinting at each of the five key factors he sees as critical in 2010 in terms of a conventional slogan ("Common wisdom") and alas, a new slogan that represents the "new normal" for the new year:

1. RevPAR recovery
Common wisdom: Fine through '09
The new normal: Back in heaven in 2011

2. Easing supply pipeline
Common wisdom: If you build it, they will come
The new normal: Ice Age in the debt markets

3. Contraction in the middle
Common wisdom: Puttin' on the Ritz
The new normal: New frugality

4. Group rates vs. transient rates
Common wisdom: Group ADR less than transient ADR
The new normal: Group ADR greater than transient ADR

5. The new value deinition
Common wisdom: It's a seller's market
The new normal: 365 days of sales

Intrigued? Click here to read the analysis behind the slogans.

California's hotel market - boom or bust?

Chip Conley is the founder and CEO of Joie de Vivre Hotels (often just called JDV), California's largest boutique hotel collection.

Closely dependent on the state's economic health, how will JDV fare now that California has hit on hard times?

Chip's article in The Hotel Yearbook is surprisingly upbeat. (Then again, maybe that's not very surprising...) Among other points he makes, he believes that in the current recesson, if consumers are staying a little closer to home, "I'd rather be a California hotelier than a Hawaii hotelier." Makes sense to me!

What do you think? Any California hoteliers out there who care to comment? How (and when) do you see the recovery coming about?